2026 Election Recap – Initial Results for Oregon
Oregon election results are in. After the rush of rumors, predictions, and election polls – both the official research polling and less official Google polls by fellow political professionals – we’re ready to dissect the results, pin what was real and what was illusion, and plan for the coming year.
Tina Kotek wins another four years
In the weeks leading up to the election, official polling reported on the news continued to claim that Kotek and Drazan were locked in a dead heat. It wasn’t a surprising result of Kotek’s first term as Governor – there were a number of agency scandals, Oregon struggled in the wake of COVID, and major policy initiatives such as the transportation tax failed.
Despite the controversy of Kotek’s governorship, it seems like Oregon couldn’t quite buck the Blue Wave we saw nationally! Drazen trailed Kotek in the first release of votes last night. She narrowed the gap slightly for the second release of votes at 10pm, but as of this morning, gained no more ground. The election was officially called for Tina Kotek and she’ll be staying put in Mahonia Hall for another four years.
Other 2026 election results
There were a number of races at the state legislature level that captured everyone’s attention. Both Republicans and Democrats were vying to flip seats and add to their caucus, but few were actually successful in flipping seats.
Senate District 16 was one such district. Previously held by Senator Weber (R), it was open this year because of Weber’s unexcused absence count from the 2023 session. Rachael Armitage (D) gave it a good go, but it’s looking like Courtney Bangs (R) will be keeping that seat firmly in the red.
While there were very few surprises on the whole, there was one notable race that had our attention held tight! It might not have been on everyone’s radar, but this was the Oregon legislative race we watched the closest. In House District 21, Kevin Mannix (R) was the fan favorite to keep his seat. He’s been a local elected for more than ten years, a well-known Republican, and according to some of the political staff who were working on that campaign, he enjoyed a name recognition of over 70%.
Despite his firm grasp of the district, Michael Welsh (D) took him down and is currently in the lead by over 1,200 votes. We don’t see that gap closing through the counting phase, so it’s likely that Representative Welsh will join the 2027 session.
Representative Javadi and Munoz both successfully defended their seats from Republican challengers, and Representative Boshart Davis is holding a narrow but convincing lead over her Democratic challenger.
Portland City Council
The more things changed, the more they stayed the same. With six councilors in Districts 3 and 4 up for re-election, and the city settling in to Ranked Choice Voting, most people were expecting a bit of a shake-up. Kotek wasn’t the only elected official with a checkered legacy. The Portland City Council has garnered a lot of voter dissatisfaction and poor news cycles, and it was expected by some that we’d see greater turn over in this election. Despite the apparent appetite for change, all six of the city councilors from Districts 3 and 4 are headed back to the council after the election. Olivia Clark, Eric Zimmerman, Mitch Green, Angelita Morillo, Steve Novick, and Tiffany Koyama Lane are all keeping their seats.
Multnomah County
The race is still technically on for Multnomah County Chair with the expectation that Singleton will win. In ranked choice voting, candidates’ votes are totaled up by who was ranked first and those who don’t have a certain percentage of the vote have their ballots reallocated to the second choice candidate. In the first round, Commissioner Sharon Meieran didn’t earn enough votes to proceed, so those who ranked her first were reallocated down to their second-place vote. Shannon Singleton is currently ahead in the race against Julia Brim-Edwards. If that all sounds as difficult to understand as a Dostoevsky novel, you aren’t alone. We too are trying to figure out how this one will end with algebra and sheer force of will!
In District 2 for Multnomah County Commissioner, Serena Cruz and Bri Williams have stepped out in front of the race after five rounds of Ranked Choice allocation. Serena Cruz, hoping to return to the board of county commissioners, is currently behind Bri Williams.
We are still waiting to see how the end rounds of ranked choice voting shake up the standings, but we expect Singleton will continue to lead over Brim Edwards and Williams to stay ahead of Cruz for District 2.
Oregon Legislative Majorities
Oregon Democrats hold the Senate 18–12 and the House 37–23. The three-fifths threshold to pass taxes is 18 in the Senate and 36 in the House. We’ll be returning to Salem with Democratic super-majorities, and what we can only assume is a political package of progressive bills.
What’s the next year going to look like?
We don’t have a crystal ball to stare into, otherwise we’d be way up on the political betting polls. That being said, we have guesses as to what will happen next in Oregon’s political landscape.
In the local municipalities, like Portland, we expect to see further policy on AI and automated technologies. We took a pause on the recent work regarding Autonomous Vehicles to see the election out, but now we are on the other side of the polling booth, we expect the City Council to pick up where they left off. In addition to technological issues, we’re expecting to see some further policy work on the homelessness epidemic, the drug crisis, and cost of housing in the city.
Cost of living is going to be a common theme! Many of the candidates this year ran on platforms that addressed the cost of living, so we imagine there will be several bills in the 2027 session aimed at making Oregon a cheaper state to live in.
While we’ll certainly see a push on affordable housing and cost of living, we’re also expecting to see yet another version of the transportation package, especially with Kotek keeping her spot at the helm!
We’re also keeping a close eye on the federal landscape post-Blue-flooding. Even before the election, HR 1 was creating a real challenge for us in preserving basic, Oregon policies like the Healthier Oregon Program and other Medicaid services. With a new Congress (and two new majorities coming into power) we genuinely don’t know what to expect from this new Congress. We are going to keep our ears to the ground, and pressed to door jams everywhere, to better get a grip of what new Congressional priorities will be.
