2026 Election Recap – Initial Results for Washington State

Tuesday’s elections were an astounding night for Democrats at the national level, and what is shaping up to be a big result for Democrats in Washington State as well. Counties still have about a third of ballots left to count, so we expect some movement back toward Republicans. But Democrats are positioned for pickups in the state House and will likely take voters’ rejection of the millionaire’s tax repeal as a green light for more progressive revenue options. Later ballots in Washington usually lean Republican, so S360’s Government Relations expert, Griffin Clay, expects Republicans to hold on in a few of the tightest races, like the 25th and the 39th. Here are his thoughts:

Setting the stage

With no statewide races this year, three initiatives and five Supreme Court races drove a lot of the energy this cycle, with the recently passed millionaires tax as the focal point for all of them.

Let’s Go Washington, a conservative leaning political committee and the heir to Tim Eyman’s initiative machine, put all three on the November ballot. The one with the most potential to impact the state was Initiative 645. I-645 would have repealed the new 9.9% tax on income over $1 million and banned any future state income tax. Initiative 638 would bar transgender girls from girls’ school sports and require health care providers to verify students’ biological sex. Initiative 001 would restore and expand parental rights in public schools, mainly by rolling back the Legislature’s 2025 changes to the original parental rights law passed in 2024.

The vote on I-645 would have had a tremendous impact on the state’s budget. Keeping the millionaires tax holds the state’s projected budget deficit at about $3 billion over the next four years. A repeal would have pushed it to roughly $16 billion. Had I-645 passed, it would have scrambled almost everyone’s legislative agenda for the upcoming session.

That being said, the fight over the millionaire’s tax is not over. The battle is headed to the courts, and that’s where the Supreme Court races come in. Former Attorney General Rob McKenna and former Justice Phil Talmadge filed suit against the state on behalf of the Citizen Action Defense Fund. Their case rests on a 1933 precedent, Culliton v. Chase, in which the court struck down a voter approved income tax, ruling that income is property and can only be taxed at a low, flat rate. Those yearning for a more progressive tax structure, and more tools to balance budgets, want a new ruling. Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen, the prime sponsor of the millionaire’s tax, has said the goal of passing the legislation is getting the court to reverse Culliton. The case is likely to reach the Supreme Court for a final ruling next year. So, the progressive leaning slate of justices voters look to have picked this week will decide whether Washington can tax income beyond a low, flat rate.

The short version

Democrats are positioned to grow their majorities in both chambers and could reach a supermajority, two thirds, in the House. Progressive challengers lead three moderate incumbent Democrats, and one moderate D challenger trails his more progressive incumbent opponent. Voters look set to keep the millionaire’s tax. And candidates backed by progressives lead in four of five Supreme Court races.

The House supermajority

Democrats started the cycle with 59 House seats. They need 66 for a two thirds supermajority. Right now they lead in nine Republican held seats and are not at risk of losing any of the seats they hold. If all leads hold, and I wouldn’t bet on it, that’s 68 total seats. One of those leads is about 600 votes, and another Republican seat is within a few hundred.

12th LD: Stacy Willoughby (D) leads Rep. Brian Burnett* (R) 51.5% to 48.5%, about 1,450 votes. Burnett led by 208 in the primary. Likely D flip.

14th LD (Yakima Valley): Both Republican incumbents trail. Chelsea Dimas (D) leads Rep. Mendoza* (R) 54.9% to 44.7%. Ezequiel Morfin (D) leads Rep. Manjarrez* (R) 55.3% to 44.3%. The court ordered redraw made this district more favorable to Democrats, and this would be the first time they capitalize on it. If these leads hold, Democrats win their first legislative seats east of the Cascades in years.

17th LD: Ben Christly (D) leads Rep. Kevin Waters* (R) 56.1% to 43.7%. Diana Perez (D) leads Rep. Stuebe* (R) 56.5% to 43.4%. Neither race looks close. Likely two D flips.

18th LD: Randi Knott (D) leads Rep. McClintock* (R) 54.2% to 45.7%. Deken Letinich (D) leads Rep. Ley* (R) 55.8% to 44%. Likely two D flips.

25th LD: The two closest races in the state. David Berg (D) leads Rep. Michael Keaton* (R) by about 600 votes, 50.7% to 49.1%. Rep. Cyndy Jacobsen* (R) leads Jenn Marie Strickling (D) by just 109 votes. I expect late ballots to help the Republicans here.

26th LD: Renee Hernandez Greenfield (D) leads Katy Cornell (R) 54.8% to 45.1% for the open seat. One D flip. Rep. Richards* (D) leads David Olson (R) 56.5% to 43.4%. This district has been trending from red to purple to blue the last couple of cycles.

39th LD: A late addition to the watch list. Steve Ewing (R) leads Ida Keeley (D) by 282 votes for an open Republican seat. I think this stays R.

10th LD: Rep. Shavers* (D) leads Chili Hicks (R) 59% to 41%, close to his primary margin. Rep. Paul (D) holds the other seat.

The Senate

Democrats hold 30 seats, three short of a supermajority, and lead in one Republican seat. Republicans have missed their only two pickup opportunities of the cycle as the 26th and 42nd legislative districts continue their drift to the left.

35th LD: Carolina Mejia (D) leads Sen. Drew MacEwen* (R) 51.5% to 48.4%, a margin of 1,380 votes. MacEwen won easily four years ago, and Democrats have been putting a lot of energy into this race since the primary.

26th LD: Sen. Krishnadasan* (D) leads Gary Parker (R) 57.3% to 42.6%.

42nd LD: Michael Shepard (D) leads Erika Creydt (R) 56.4% to 43.5%, nearly 7,800 votes, in an open seat Republicans targeted as one of their few flip opportunities.

Moderate Democrats under pressure

Three moderate Democrats trail progressive challengers.

29th LD: Krista Perez (D) leads Rep. Melanie Morgan* (D) 51.6% to 48.4%, about 740 votes. Morgan also trailed in the primary.

48th LD: Jessica Forsythe (D) leads Rep. Amy Walen* (D) 51.1% to 47%, about 1,050 votes, with 47% counted. Only 17 votes separated them in the August primary. Walen had more business backing than any other Democrat this cycle. A Forsythe win is a big swing to the left in one of the more affluent legislative districts in the state.

32nd LD: Sen. Jesse Salomon (D) trails Rep. Cindy Ryu (D) by 352 votes, 49.6% to 48.7%, with 53% counted. Independent spending for Salomon outpaced Ryu about five to one, roughly $500,000 to $100,000. A Ryu win removes a moderate D vote from the Senate.

Two other races between Democrats are worth watching.

37th LD: In Seattle, House Education Chair Sharon Tomiko Santos, in the Legislature since 1999, trails Kelabe Tewolde 61.8% to 37.3% with 54% counted. That gap is too big to close.

23rd LD: Rep. Tarra Simmons (D) leads fellow Democrat Daria Ilgen by 460 votes, 49.8% to 48.8%, with 66% counted.

Ballot measures

Voters look set to keep the millionaire’s tax. The measure to repeal it and ban a state income tax is failing 58.1% to 41.9% with 60% counted, a gap of about 322,000 votes. Washington voters have weighed in on income taxes 11 times over the past 100 years. As recently as 2010, they rejected a proposal to tax individuals earning over $200,000 and joint filers over $400,000. This tax starts much higher at $1 million, and voters appear ready to accept it.

The measure requiring school sports participation be based on biological sex is passing 56.8% to 43.2%. The parental rights measure is failing 52.7% to 47.3%.

Supreme Court

Four of the progressive backed candidates lead comfortably. Chief Justice Debra Stephens has 63.8%, Justice Colleen Melody 60%, Judge Jaime Hawk 57.7% for an open seat, and Justice Theo Angelis 55.4%. The lone close race is Position 4, where Sean O’Donnell leads Ian Birk 50.9% to 48.7%. O’Donnell drew strong business support throughout the race and an impressive list of endorsements. Birk leads in King County by about 15 points. With a lot of vote left to count, this one could flip Birk’s way. This was the first electoral challenge for two of Governor Ferguson’s appointees, Justices Angelis and Melody, and it cements a more progressive court moving forward.

Congress

3rd CD: The race has been called for Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez* (D). She leads Sen. John Braun (R) 55% to 44.2%, about 28,100 votes, with 67% counted. This was one of the pure toss-up seats in the country a few months ago and one where Gluesenkamp Perez has been defying political gravity since first winning election. Gluesenkamp Perez is one of just 23 Democrats representing a district Trump won in 2024. Braun had Trump’s endorsement and ran as a more establishment, moderate, and old school Republican candidate than Joe Kent, her opponent in 2022 and 2024. Braun couldn’t escape the blue wave, and Gluesenkamp Perez has proven to be a true representative of one of the more unique CDs in Washington. After two narrow wins over Kent, this double-digit margin strengthens her independent brand heading into the next Congress.

5th CD: The surprise of the night. Rep. Michael Baumgartner* (R) leads his Democratic challenger by just 1 point, 1,807 votes, in a district Republicans haven’t lost since 1992. About 43% of the vote is still uncounted, including 44,000 ballots in Spokane County. The DCCC added this seat to its reach list a month or two ago, and the numbers so far back that call. Watch the Spokane returns closely this week.

Washington Education and Municipal Local Funding Measures

Local, voter-approved bonds and levies continue to provide critical funding streams to school districts and municipalities as state and federal funding have not kept up with the rising costs of services and operations. Washington voters weighed 112 local tax measures this week, 39 of them for fire, EMS and hospital districts, and fire and EMS measures are doing best. Lacey Fire District 3’s $98.3 million bond is at 69.53%, Spokane Fire District 9’s capital bond is at 62.79%, and South County Fire’s bond is at 60.92%, so all three are clearing the supermajority. Criminal justice measures are doing worse. In Clark County, the $366 million jail and courts bond has 52.31%, well short of 60%, and the levy lid lift to staff it is failing at 47.24%. Voters are separating fire and EMS from jails and courts, even when both are presented as public safety.

The K-12 results show the same split. Levies are passing at high rates, with 10 of 12 operations levies and 8 of 9 capital levies ahead, but only 1 of 8 school bonds is clearing 60% on the first count (subsequent ballots have pushed a second school bond over the 60% threshold). Other simple-majority measures are passing too, including Timberland Regional Library’s lid lift.

For local governments, the lesson is that voters will fund specific services they trust, and the 60% requirement for bonds is still the biggest obstacle.