2026 Election Recap – Initial Results for Alaska
While the counting is still underway in Alaska, the state trends have been moving from red to purple in the last five years and is now leaning towards blue. While not unexpected, when a state is Republican dominated for decades, it takes time to see the transitions in political affiliations. Because of the unique election process and reporting in Alaska, details on the race outcomes are still pending, and this blog will be updated with more information as we learn it. For now, our Alaska team have summarized the big picture of the 2026 elections in the state.
The races we’re watching: The big three are the U.S. Senate race between Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan, the governor’s race between Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (JKT) and Republican Bernadette Wilson, and control of the Alaska Legislature. We’ve also been engaged in independent expenditure work around deep-water trawling, which supported Peltola and some state staff have provided pro bono advice to Mary, Independent Congressional Candidate Bill Hill, and JKT.
Where things stand: As of Friday afternoon, Mary Peltola is narrowly ahead of Dan Sullivan by approximately 637 votes, with roughly 74% of ballots counted. It’s about as close as it gets. There could be as many as 100,000 outstanding absentee, early and questioned ballots. Those votes historically lean 3-4 points left, which will likely extend Peltola’s lead, however if she doesn’t get to 50 % (possible but unlikely) the 3rd place finisher, Gerald Heikes’ (R), and fourth place finisher, Dan J Sullivan’s (D), votes now come into play. Dan J Sullivan in 4th helps Peltola as those votes will all go to her and be counted first as ranked choice voting kicks in. However, Heikes has 1,500 more votes than Sullivan and that matters. Our strategists estimate that Mary Peltola is in a better position than incumbent Dan Sullivan, but the race is so tight, that we will have to wait a while for the final call.
The governor’s race has created multiple Republican challengers, allowing a Democrat to unite people. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is sitting just below 50%, with a substantial lead over the divided Republican field. If he holds on (very likely but not certain due to ranked choice voting) Alaska will have a Democratic governor for the first time since Tony Knowles left office in 2002.
Legislatively, Democrats and Independents are leading in 23 of 40 House seats, suggesting the existing bipartisan coalition could grow considerably. The Senate also looks likely to retain a coalition majority with Democrats playing a central role. There’s even a possibility the House coalition won’t need any Republican members this time around. That will likely be the debate as the leadership discussions continue.
What makes Alaska different: Don’t expect final answers anytime soon. Alaska doesn’t count everything on Election Night. Tens of thousands of absentees, early and questioned ballots are still coming in, with counting continuing into mid-November. The official ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18, with certification targeted for November 25. So, while the rest of the country is celebrating or licking its wounds, Alaska is still moving at pre global warming glacial pace
Looking toward 2027: The implications could be significant. A Democratic governor, stronger Democratic representation in the Legislature, and potentially a more unified governing coalition changes the political dynamics in Juneau. Expect renewed conversations around education funding, oil and income or state tax increases the state budget, resource development, fisheries, and the Permanent Fund dividend.
