By Jonathan Harris

Strategies 360 designer Cheryl Couris and I attended the Creative Mornings lecture series today. It’s just down the street from our office here in Seattle and this marks the 4^th  of these events held locally, but the series, run by AIGA, hosts other Creative Mornings lectures all over the world.

Today’s speaker was Scott Berkun, a polished public speaker, published author, and current team lead at WordPress.com. Our discussion was on the topic of Creative Hacks, which are interesting ways to encourage, maintain and assist creative problem solving.

As professionals, we go into these lectures already knowing much of what will be discussed, but simply being reminded of these activities and exercises can prove incredibly beneficial to our work, and our lives. Fortunately today’s lecture brought with it a myriad of fresh new ideas and Scott fielded some really great questions at the end of the session.

If you’re interested in learning more or would like to attend, check out http://www.creativemornings.com/ The lectures are organized by location so choose one that’s near you. They’re also filmed and available online shortly after.

Jonathan Harris is creative services director at Strategies 360. 

Colorado is making headlines today for delivering an upset victory to Rick Santorum in the GOP presidential nomination contest. Obviously, the result is a dramatic turn that will shift momentum away from Mitt Romney. But what really happened here in Colorado last night?

The answer lies in understanding important differences between a caucus and a primary election. In a primary, the state government holds an election with registered voters. Some primaries are “open,” in which voters of any party can participate, while some are “closed,” and only open to people registered with a political party.

Colorado State Map

Caucuses are very different. A caucus is run by a political party under state statute, not local government. In contrast to primaries, caucuses offer very limited access for eligible participants. The locations are not the same as regular polling precincts, and participants must arrive at the caucus meeting at a specific time. Most caucuses don’t allow proxy votes, so if you’re sick, have to work, or take care of the kids that night, you are out of luck. This is why caucus turnout is usually a small fraction of the turnout for a primary, and thus rewards the candidate with the most dedicated supporters.

Simply put, caucuses reward intensity and depth of support.  Primaries reward breadth and quantity of support. One isn’t necessarily “better” than the other; they offer us different pictures about the strength of a candidate.

In Colorado, Romney’s demographic profile seems very favorable: We’ve got a strong Mormon population, and Romney’s got roots in the west, as well as compatibility with among higher income and more educated voters. Plus, he won the state’s 2008 primary contest by more than 40 points.

But as Nate Silver points out in his New York Times blog post, the lower turnout of the Colorado caucus last night versus 2008 was a telling indicator. Colorado counties where Santorum was winning saw an elevated turnout, while counties where Romney was winning had lower participation.

Overall, the turnout last night in Colorado was 65,489, which is lower than the 70,229 turnout in 2008 (when the eventual nominee, John McCain garnered a weak 19% of the caucus vote), even though there was much more Republican campaigning in Colorado over the last few weeks than there was back in 2008. Some analysts cite snow on the ground as a possible factor that depressed turnout. But we’re accustomed to snow out here and it had stopped falling long before caucus meetings were called to order.

Speculation on the meaning of last night’s results will fill blogs over the next several days with talk about a Republican “enthusiasm gap,” analysis of which campaign has the stamina and funds to survive a lull in contests over the next few weeks, and of course how new “SuperPAC” money might be having an impact.

But Colorado’s caucus results simply mean that Rick Santorum had a higher intensity of support than Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, or Ron Paul. And, that Romney’s support from elected officials and establishment elites proved no match for the fervor of a conservative base thirsty for a clear contrast to Obama.

Tyler Chafee is the Senior Vice President in charge of Colorado Operations for Strategies 360.  In his previous life, he is a veteran of two presidential campaigns and has the dubious distinction of organized caucus efforts for several campaigns.

By Kevin Ingham

“How are you dealing with the people who only have cell phones?”

I hear this question at every presentation and every meeting.  It comes up in social settings when people learn I’m a pollster. Needless to say, I’m a hit at parties.

There’s good reason to ask the question: It poses a challenge for every pollster.

You can go here, here, and here for background on why this is important, but here’s the short version: The number of people without a landline is growing steadily and it is expensive to poll these folks.

So why does the cell-only population matter?  Because there is growing evidence that excluding cell-only respondents from a poll will introduce bias that cannot be compensated for by demographic weighting or attributed to the margin of error.

These differences are on full display here in the Evergreen State where the government’s most recent state-level estimates are that 26.4% of Washington adults live in cell-only households.

Below is a table with the results from a poll Strategies 360 completed in November of likely 2012 voters in Washington.  Respondents were reached on both landlines and cell phones.

As you can see, there are some clear differences between the two groups including:

• A 25-point difference in the margin of favorability for the president
• A 6-point difference in the margin of favorability for Mitt Romney
• A 32-point difference in the margin of favorability for Maria Cantwell
• A 6-point difference in the margin of favorability for Chris Gregoire
• An 8-point difference in the margin of presidential candidate preference.

Interestingly, at this early point in the race, there don’t appear to be significant differences in gubernatorial candidate preferences between the two groups.

These findings are strikingly consistent with the findings of both SurveyUSA (both locally and nationally) and Marist about the differences between cell-only respondents and those with landlines.

Obviously, there is mounting evidence that the cell phone challenge is one that must be addressed by pollsters if we wish to continue providing high-quality research to the media and our clients.

So, going back to the original question, how is Strategies 360 handling the cell phone challenge?

We are staying ahead of the problem by adapting and innovating.  Is your pollster?

Kevin Ingham is Strategies 360’s vice president of polling and research.

Political junkies who didn’t catch Up Front with Robert Mak this week should hit the web to watch his comprehensive look at the brewing race in Washington 1^st Congressional District.

Because incumbent Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee is running for governor, the Washington State Redistricting Commission felt free to completely redraw the district’s borders so that it takes in eastern Whatcom, Skagit and Snohomish counties, as well as the northeast chunk of King County. As Strategies 360 founder and CEO Ron Dotzauer points out near the end of the piece, the commissioners created a far more rural and conservative district than the old 1^st.

Along with his deep knowledge of Washington politics, Ron brings a local’s perspective to this race: his home in rural Snohomish County sits in the heart of the new district.

Ron notes that Democratic U.S. Sen. Patty Murray lost within the boundaries of the new 1^st in her 2010 showdown with Republican Dino Rossi, even though she won handily overall.

About two-thirds of the voters in this new 1^st CD are in conservative areas of Snohomish, Skagit and Whatcom Counties east of Interstate 5. Most of the Democrats, meanwhile, are concentrated in the swath of King County that includes Kirkland and other upscale suburban communities.

Of the declared Democratic candidates for the race, nearly all live in the King County portion of the district, including former state Rep. Laura Ruderman, current state Rep. Roger Goodman, progressive activist Darcy Burner and former Commissioner of Revenue Suzan DelBene. Burner and DelBene both ran unsuccessful campaigns in recent years to unseat U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert in the 8^th District. Ron figures they’ll all be competing for the same set of voters in the August primary. That might leave room for moderate state Sen. Steve Hobbs of Lake Stevens.

On the Republican side, Snohomish County Councilman John Koster has the field to himself. Koster narrowly lost a bruising contest two years ago to U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen in the 2^nd District. The new boundaries made the 2^nd safer for Larsen and pushed Koster into the 1^st.

All things considered, Ron figures the new district leans Republican. It’s definitely one to watch.

True or false: Manufacturing in the United States grew in 2011.

True.

Graphic from The Wall Street Journal

If you answered false, you’ve fallen for the pervasive story of the decline of America’s manufacturing economy.

It’s a theme that arcs back decades to the withering of steel and automobiles in the 1970s, the rise of Japan in the 80s, the giant sucking sound started by NAFTA in the 90s, and the rapid ascent of China and India in the last decade.

Like all good narratives, this one has an underlying truth: US manufacturing has changed dramatically over the past four decades.  With it have come dizzying and often terrifying changes for American workers, communities, and the expectations and structure of our society. It’s not an accident that much of the current presidential campaign is a fight for the votes of the working class. The potency of capturing an America that stands for hard work and fair pay is a political narrative as enduring and seductive as that of the family farmer.

But in reality, US manufacturing grew in 2011.  A combination of a deeply troubled Europe, slowing Chinese economy, and a slight rebound from the depths of 2008-2010 actually meant a growing manufacturing base in this country.  For all the talk of an Asian century and the off-shoring of American jobs, the US still enjoys competitive advantages _ a broadly stable investing climate where no one is likely to steal your factory or throw you in jail for your business choices, the world’s currency of choice, a highly skilled workforce, and innovation yet to be matched globally.

Strategies 360 works with a terrific group of industrial firms that are leading this change.  We provide communications, strategic positioning, and government relations support to global firms like Voith which, among its many precision-engineered products, is the world’s preeminent manufacturer of hydro turbines and generators _ an industry of particular value in our home region, where so much of our electricity comes from hydropower.  Voith has added hundreds of employees in its York, Pa., factory over the past few years.

We are nimble enough to lobby in Olympia on behalf of Itek Energy, a Bellingham, Wash., firm started by two entrepreneurs who are now hiring a shop-floor employee each week as the ramp up production of high-quality solar panels like these: 

We have helped the smart strategic folks at Atlas Holdings with comprehensive community, government and media support.  Atlas rides in to turn around distressed manufacturing assets across North America, preserving and then creating thousands of jobs in what are all too commonly dismissed as “old economy” industries like forest products.

We even provide counsel to companies like RailAmerica, whose network of short line railroads around North America provide an efficient affordable path to move US goods to global markets.

Of course Strategies 360 has its eye on the new economy as well _ our work supports diverse and growing companies such as Microsoft, Novo Nordisk, Imperium Renewables, and a host of others.

This is not to forget there are real challenges to a manufacturing renaissance.  Political gridlock in Washington DC stifles investment.  Our creaky education system cries out for reform. We will never be the low-cost labor source in a global economy where billions of people live on a few dollars a year.

We can be the high-value producer of advanced machinery.  We can maintain an innovative edge that leads to the development of things like BioJet which could help shape our future. Importantly, we can do all this in a way that engages our communities and drives benefits to the local level. The notion that a rising tide can lift all boats is a core tenet of our work at S360, and it is reflected in our work on projects like this one for TransAlta USA.

We don’t manufacture products here at Strategies 360.  But we know a good story when we see one, and we are particularly drawn to those that challenge myths that can come from complacency or neglect.  The revival of manufacturing in this country is a great untold story, and we are privileged to help our clients who are writing it every day spread the word.

Jason Yormark, Vice President for Marketing and Social Media at Strategies 360, has been named one of the nation’s top social media power influencers by Forbes.

Yormark, who tweets at @jasonyormark to an audience of 66,000 followers and also writes a widely read blog, ranked 30^th on Forbes’ list, and highest in the Pacific Northwest.

At Strategies 360, Jason advises the firm’s clients on how to best use the growing and dynamic world of social media to achieve success. He builds strategies that incorporate cutting-edge social media solutions and online marketing tactics.  He is also a regular speaker at search engine strategies conferences and a contributor to Business2Community, a top online marketing blog that has named him one of the “ 40 Most Approachable Social Media A-listers on Twitter.”

Jason can be reached at jasony@strategies360.com

Here’s a lesson on why you need to keep track of what people are saying about your organization on Twitter and other social-networking sites. Yesterday we got an inquisitive e-mail from Associated Press reporter Mike Baker asking about this tweet: “Wa state Ex Dem chair Paul Berendt is storming private office building w/ 15 occupy peeps. We called cops.” Paul is a senior vice president at Strategies 360 and the former chair of the state Democratic party. The tweet had come from Nansen Malin, a conservative activist with more than 375,000 Twitter followers, and she repeated the assertion two more times. (Paul enjoys a certain notoriety among conservatives because of his role in Gov. Chris Gregoire’s narrow victory in 2004.)

However, Paul was in fact not engaging in a demonstration, but working at S360′s headquarters. After calling Baker to reassure him that he wasn’t missing a story, we called Malin. Turns out she’s the state director for Americans For Prosperity, a conservative, Koch Brothers-funded group which has had some trouble with campaign finance watchdogs in Washington.

After initially defending her Tweets and saying that someone at the protest had given Paul’s name and business card to a security guard, Malin agreed to retract her tweets. We’re still perplexed by this case of mistaken identity or how Malin came to believe that Paul was there, but she issued several retractions and apologized.

End result: the story didn’t blow up, although it did make Publicola, which covers politics and government in Washington state. The takeaway: false information is posted on the internet all the time. Monitoring the web and being aggressive in dealing with false posting is in your best interest. And, if you’re tweeting, make sure you actually have the facts before you release something into the social media universe.

The Road Map Project just released a sobering yet inspiring report about education in South Seattle and South King County. Please check out Mary Jean Ryan’s Impatient Optimist blog.

Recently the Denver office of Strategies 360 held an open house to introduce people to our firm, the Colorado team and the unique business model that allows us to provide a wide range of services from some of the most talented communications professionals and strategists across the West.

While I have been working on public affairs issues in Colorado for more than 15 years, the firm is new to the state and I really had no idea how many people would want to come and learn more about us.

More than 100 people RSVP’d to the event and helped us celebrate the opening of our new office near the heart of downtown. I was heartened by all the kind words and encouragement that came from the elected officials, non-profit leaders, staffers, reporters, and colleagues. A big thank-you to Denver Post columnist Lynn Bartels, who posted a great piece on the event.

It was a great night and a great way to introduce S360 to Colorado.